Message-ID: <oaEwHuO00VcJ099U5V@andrew.cmu.edu>
Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU
From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU
To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU
Date: Sun,  6 May 90 02:32:27 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: SPACE Digest V11 #366

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 11 : Issue 366

Today's Topics:
		      Re: Status of Projects...
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Date: 5 May 90 20:54:30 GMT
From: mnetor!utzoo!henry@uunet.uu.net  (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: Status of Projects...

In article <DLBRES10.90May4154638@pc.usl.edu> dlbres10@pc.usl.edu (Fraering Philip) writes:
>Seriously, though, this is a horrible state of affairs;
>Is there possibly a way to get NASA involved in helping prove out the
>public or private concepts listed, in the same way that DAPRA
>helped Pegasus? (Question: Exactly how much did DAPRA/DoD help 
>Pegasus?) 

DARPA/DoD bought the first 2-3 launches for Pegasus (including providing
the launch aircraft for said launches), and they and NASA were generally
helpful about facilities and the like.  Development funding was private.

The problem with private launch concepts is not really technology or
funding, but the lack of a reasonably assured market.  Having DARPA buy
the first few launches certainly helped Pegasus quite a bit, but even
so OSC/H are gambling quite a bit that enough further customers will
materialize to repay their investment.  Nobody else has had the money
and the bravery to do likewise.  And this is for a small launcher using
(mostly) off-the-shelf technology.

> [from another posting]
> Larger markets probrably won't evolve with the current ultraexpensive
> (X thousand a pound? Whatchya doing? Using gold as reaction mass?)
> rockets we are currently using. Solar Power Sattelites, SDI, et al
> all seem to be waiting for a cheap lift.

And in turn, cheaper rockets are not evolving because the larger markets
that would be needed to make them financially viable don't exist.  The
existing launchers are more or less adequate for most existing payloads.

We really aren't going to be able to break out of this vicious circle
as long as everyone wants to do business as usual.  We need either a
big guaranteed market for cheap launches -- like the Air Mail contracts
(set up at a time when nobody was very interested in using Air Mail)
that got the US commercial aviation/airline industry going -- or someone
who's willing to go way out on a limb to build a cheap launcher and then
patiently build a market for it to serve.
-- 
If OSI is the answer, what is |     Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology
the question?? -Rolf Nordhagen| uunet!attcan!utzoo!henry henry@zoo.toronto.edu

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End of SPACE Digest V11 #366
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